SOBERING STATS: LABOR POOL SHORTAGE UNTIL 2030 

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More Jobs – Less Available Hires   

The pool of available workers for hire in the U.S. labor market will continue to decline for the next eight years, according to a new analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Below is a quick summary of those statistics. Links to potential hiring solutions can be found at the end of this article. 

 

Available Labor Pool vs. Job Growth   

  • The available labor force participation rate is projected to continue trending downward through 2030 due to the entire generation of Baby Boomers reaching the traditional retirement age of 65 by 2030—and a declining population rate which will reduce the number of people available to work.  
  • BLS is forecasting that total employment openings will grow from 153.5 million to 165.4 million jobs over the 2020–30 decade, an increase of 11.9 million job openings that need to be filled.  
  • Labor pool participation rate is projected to decline, from 61.7 percent in 2020 to 60.4 percent in 2030.  The U.S. will add 11.9 million new jobs through 2030 but only 8.9 million new entrants to the labor force.  

 

Hiring Need by Sectors  

  • Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector is projected to increase the fastest, largely driven by pandemic recovery growth. Most employment gains through 2030 are expected to occur in the service sectors, which are projected to reach about 134.1 million jobs. 
  • Healthcare, health care support and social assistance sectors is projected to add the most new jobs.  
  • About one-third of the jobs created, or 3.9 million, will be in low-wage  sectors that pay less than $32,000 a year.  
  • There will be 7 million job openings for roles that don’t require a college degree but only 2.8 million unemployed people without a college degree to be available to fill these jobs.  

 

  

Labor Pool Participation by Age Group  

  •  Overall labor force participation is projected to continue its downward trend through 2030.   
  • Participation in employment rates of younger age groups have been steadily declining over the past couple of decades and are projected to continue to do so through 2030 due to a delayed entrance into the workforce.   
  • The participation rate of the prime-age population (ages 25 to 54) has been slowly trending down but is expected to remain flat through 2030  
  • Participation rates of older age groups have been trending upward for the past two decades and are projected to continue to do so even as the large Baby Boom generation continues to retire but are replaced by other aging generations.  

 

 

Solutions for retaining and hiring new employees during a tough labor market…. 

Cardinal Services has many articles full of information, tips and suggestions explaining how employers can navigate a shrinking labor pool: